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The cost of government delay: a scenario calculator

Delay can impose costs, but not every review is unnecessary. A useful analysis separates avoidable waiting from work that improves safety, legality, or project quality—and states the assumptions behind its numbers.

Checked September 9, 2026 · 3 min read · Source-linked guide

Define the clock before measuring it

Choose a start event and an end event: a complete application to a decision, a funding award to construction, or construction start to opening. Different clocks measure different processes. Record pauses caused by the applicant separately from agency review when the data permit. Otherwise a single elapsed-time number can hide the actual bottleneck.

Use a transparent first approximation

The calculator estimates simple carrying cost as exposed capital × annual rate × months of delay ÷ 12. It also shows a separate assumed monthly benefit multiplied by the delay. Both outputs are scenarios. They do not include discounting, cost escalation, changing capital exposure, or the value of review. Do not add them blindly if they overlap.

ComponentEvidence to seek
Exposed capitalWhat money is actually committed during the waiting period?
RateWhat financing or opportunity-cost assumption is appropriate?
Deferred benefitWho would receive it, when, and how is it measured?
Review valueWhat risk, harm, or future rework might the review prevent?
AlternativesCan steps run concurrently while preserving their substantive tests?

Locate the dependency

A project can wait on a permit, an incomplete application, financing, land access, design, procurement, or a utility connection. Map which step blocks the next one. Speeding up a nonbinding stage may not change the opening date. This is an operational diagnosis, not a claim that eliminating public participation would improve every project.

Use estimates to ask better questions

If carrying cost appears material, ask which portion of the timeline is avoidable and what it would take to shorten it. If the largest delay is construction or a scarce component, a faster signature may do little. Compare the proposed improvement with its costs and safeguards. The homepage’s “coordination tax” is a framing device; this tool makes the arithmetic assumptions explicit.

Working tool

Explore a delay scenario

Inputs stay in this page. No submission, account, or data upload.

Illustrative defaults. Simple interest; no compounding or discounting. Review benefits and overlapping costs are not modeled.

Sources and further reading

Use these original sources to verify the explanation and check for changes. Practical worksheets and hypothetical examples on this page are our synthesis.